Population Projections Raise Planning Concerns

The population in the UK is predicted to increase by 4.4 million over the next ten years and from 60.6 million in 2006 to 65 million in 2016 by the Office of National Statistics (ONS).

These substantial increases in UK population projections compared to figures produced two years ago have raised concerns and caused campaigners to voice the need for a national strategy to control population.

If past trends continue the population will continue to grow, reaching 71 million by 2031; 12 million more than previously forecast in 2005. This increase is linked to more births than deaths and a net inward flow of migrants.

This population increase would be unprecedented in the UK and affect resources already feeling the strain of an already over-populated Great Britain. Primarily, the increase would exacerbate the shortage of housing, intensify the requirement to release land for development and further exert pressure on existing infrastructure. The potential impacts on the environment would also have serious implications particularly in relation to climate change concerns, making the problem that much more difficult to combat.

The predictions, whilst involving wider issues of mobility at the European and even global level, require an immediate response in terms of planning policy and here in the South West, we may already be feeling the ripples of the predicted increase.

The Regional Spatial Strategy for the South West, which dictates the house building and land release requirements for the region, is currently in draft form. The Examination in Public (where the RSS is tested and discussed before an independent panel appointed by the First Secretary of State) ended in July of this year. The panel are currently preparing their report to the Government who will consider the need to make any changes to the draft RSS. It was originally anticipated that the panel would submit their report in September 2007 but this has been repeatedly delayed and has now been pushed back until mid to late December at least. The release of these new ONS figures and the implications on housing requirements (amongst other things) in our region may have caused this delay.

The Panel in charge of reviewing the Draft RSS has not debated or examined the predicted population figures and where the necessary new development would be sited. Local Authorities will need to amend their Core Strategies to reflect the new housing requirements set out in any review of the RSS and to release the requisite land for development.

If the local planning authorities are to meet new targets in line with the recent ONS predictions, they will find themselves under extra pressure to find and allocate suitable land for housing. If they are unable to plan for the release and development of the best land, house builders are poised to take advantage of the lack of direction from LPAs and develop land that they hold regardless of local planning policy. With increased population projections and understaffed planning authorities, this eventuality becomes even more likely.

Published 12/12/2007. The author of this article is Suzanne Leedham