Coping With Growth

The South West is booming with more people moving into the area than anywhere else in the UK and economic growth also outstripping most of the country.

Whilst this recognition of the South West’s pre-eminent charms is understandable, it brings its own pressures for growth and, with growth, comes development and change. An ideal opportunity for landowners and developers, but it needs careful management and focussed effort.

Need

This pressure for growth stems from a recognised housing shortfall, which is particularly pronounced in the South West. Speaking at the recent National Housing Conference, the Chief Executive of the Town and Country Planning Association, Gideon Amos, compared the scale of the current nationwide housing shortfall to the pensions crisis. The UK does not build enough housing to accommodate its population.

In addition to in-migration, the number of households are rising due to changing social circumstances. The increase in longevity, propensity of the elderly to live independently and the number of families split over more than one home all lead to a greater number of smaller households. Predicting the scale of these social changes and the likely consequences is difficult. Over recent years the assumptions of future housing needs has continually been revised as new information comes to light. In our opinion pressure to build new homes in the South West will continue to rise.

Policy responses

Existing regional planning policy requires an annual provision of 20,200 dwellings per year across the South West for the period 1996-2016. Revised household formation rates from the Office for National Statistics indicate this annual regional target should be 28,000 dwellings. The likely distribution of any increase, along with consideration of the principle of increased housing targets, will need to be publicly debated at the examination into the draft Regional Spatial Strategy starting in April 2007.

Local authorities are required to prepare Local Development Frameworks (LDF), replacing the current Local Plans. The ‘framework’ is made up of a series of documents, one of which will relate to site allocations. Some local authorities are more ambitious than others and these LDFs are in various stages of development throughout the region. In preparing LDFs, local authorities must listen to landowners and developers at the earliest stages. It is up to landowners and developers to promote key sites as part of this process as being the most appropriate location for growth.

An immensely important development is a recent appeal decision, relating to a proposal for 200 dwellings at Ogwell Cross, Newton Abbot where the Secretary of State recovered the appeal for determination from the planning inspector. The decision decide that the housing shortfall, lack of previously developed land elsewhere and the level of affordable housing provision would override local planning policy. In essence the need for housing was so great that outdated planning policy was overridden. Until up to date LDFs are prepared, this decision is likely to set an important precedent.

Direction of growth

The existing regional policy highlights certain settlements for growth. Within Devon, Cornwall and Somerset, the four settlements are Taunton, Exeter, Plymouth and Torbay. Draft replacement regional policy proposes settlements for growth are Bridgwater, Taunton, Yeovil, Barnstaple, Exeter, Torbay, Plymouth, Cambourne/Pool/Redruth, Falmouth/Penryn and Truro. Large areas of land adjoining places like, Taunton, Exeter and Truro are identified as ‘Areas of Search’ and District Councils are expected to allocate sites for housing development. In our view, next year’s examination of the Regional Spatial Strategy is likely to amend the list of specified settlements. Places like Bridgwater and Falmouth, for instance, and their need to grow will be reassessed at the examination.

The importance of the regional planning policy context cannot be underestimated. It will set the tone for development over the next twenty years. Those with an interest in land need to engage with the planning process to ensure that their interests are served.

Impacts

The consequences of under provision are already well publicised. The un-affordability problem is particularly pronounced in the South West. It has now reached crisis point with the average house price now at 9.3 times the average income. Not providing sufficient housing could potentially worsen this problem. In addition, the strong economy in much of the South West requires an adequately housed labour force. Under-provision of housing now will have dire consequences for the region’s future economic performance.

There is no doubt that the South West will experience increased housing growth and it will be spread throughout the region. In contrast to previous periods, growth will not be primarily greenfield land on the edge of our towns and cities. Growth will be on the edge of towns and cities, but it will be supplemented by a continuation of increased house-building within towns and cities, re-using previously developed land.

Opportunities

This moment is an important opportunity for anyone with an interest in land. Regional planning policy clearly points towards building more housing but the precise direction and scale of growth has not been agreed. Once the regional framework is set, it is essential that land is managed through the LDF process appropriately to ensure that people are adequately housed and economic growth continues.